EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND INFORMALITY IN ECUADOR: QUARTERLY EVIDENCE (2020Q4–2025Q3) USING LOGIT MODELS AND FIXED EFFECTS
Keywords:
Education; labor formality; informality; ENEMDU; EcuadorAbstract
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46296/yc.v10i18.0814
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between educational attainment and labor-market outcomes in Ecuador by distinguishing between employment incidence (being employed within the economically active population, EAP) and job quality (formality). Using aggregated quarterly ENEMDU evidence for 2020Q4–2025Q3, we build a quarter × education cell panel (N=80). We estimate weighted binomial logit models with quarter fixed effects for employment and unemployment within the EAP and for formality under two operational definitions: D0 (formal/total employed) and D2 (formal/(formal+informal)). For economic interpretation, we report average predicted probabilities with 95% confidence intervals obtained via quarter-cluster bootstrap. Results indicate that employment probability within the EAP is high across education groups but not monotonic in schooling, whereas formality displays a strong and robust education gradient; tertiary education is associated with substantially higher predicted formality than basic education and no schooling, consistently across D0 and D2. Overall, the evidence suggests that, over the analyzed quarterly horizon, education is primarily associated with improvements in job quality (shifts toward formality) rather than higher overall employment incidence within the EAP.
Keywords: Education; labor formality; informality; ENEMDU; Ecuador.
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