EDUCACIÓN, EMPLEO E INFORMALIDAD EN ECUADOR: EVIDENCIA TRIMESTRAL (2020Q4–2025Q3) CON MODELOS LOGIT Y EFECTOS FIJOS
Palabras clave:
Educación; formalidad laboral; informalidad; ENEMDU; EcuadorResumen
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46296/yc.v10i18.0814
Resumen
Este estudio analiza la relación entre nivel educativo y resultados laborales en Ecuador, distinguiendo entre cantidad de empleo (estar empleado dentro de la PEA) y calidad del empleo (formalidad). Se utiliza evidencia trimestral agregada de ENEMDU para el período 2020Q4–2025Q3, construyendo un panel de celdas trimestre × educación (N=80). Se estiman modelos logit binomiales ponderados con efectos fijos trimestrales para empleo y desempleo en PEA, así como para formalidad bajo dos definiciones: D0 (formal/ocupados) y D2 (formal/(formal+informal)). Para facilitar interpretación económica, se reportan probabilidades predichas promedio e intervalos de confianza al 95% mediante bootstrap re-muestreando trimestres. Los resultados muestran que la probabilidad de empleo dentro de la PEA es alta en todos los grupos, pero no es monótona con la educación; en contraste, la formalidad presenta un gradiente educativo marcado y robusto, con educación superior asociada a una probabilidad de formalidad sustancialmente mayor que educación básica y ausencia de educación, consistente bajo D0 y D2. En conjunto, la evidencia sugiere que, en el corto plazo trimestral analizado, la educación se asocia principalmente con mejora de la calidad del empleo (transición hacia formalidad) más que con aumentos en la ocupación total dentro de la PEA.
Palabras claves: Educación; formalidad laboral; informalidad; ENEMDU; Ecuador.
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between educational attainment and labor-market outcomes in Ecuador by distinguishing between employment incidence (being employed within the economically active population, EAP) and job quality (formality). Using aggregated quarterly ENEMDU evidence for 2020Q4–2025Q3, we build a quarter × education cell panel (N=80). We estimate weighted binomial logit models with quarter fixed effects for employment and unemployment within the EAP and for formality under two operational definitions: D0 (formal/total employed) and D2 (formal/(formal+informal)). For economic interpretation, we report average predicted probabilities with 95% confidence intervals obtained via quarter-cluster bootstrap. Results indicate that employment probability within the EAP is high across education groups but not monotonic in schooling, whereas formality displays a strong and robust education gradient; tertiary education is associated with substantially higher predicted formality than basic education and no schooling, consistently across D0 and D2. Overall, the evidence suggests that, over the analyzed quarterly horizon, education is primarily associated with improvements in job quality (shifts toward formality) rather than higher overall employment incidence within the EAP.
Keywords: Education; labor formality; informality; ENEMDU; Ecuador.
Información del manuscrito:
Fecha de recepción: 07 de noviembre de 2025.
Fecha de aceptación: 20 de enero de 2026.
Fecha de publicación: 20 de febrero de 2026.
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